The biggest mistake homeowners make (buy a furnace)

So - the monster in the basement/attic/hall closet has finally failed, or is no longer able to be maintained (can’t get parts, etc). In short, you need a new furnace! (actually you don’t). Buying a new furnace in 2023 is one of the worst things you can do for your wallet the planet, and the value of your home. Gas appliances are falling out of favor quite quickly, for plenty of good reasons. It turns out natural gas is as dirty as coal in the real world. And while a 95+% furnace *sounds* efficient, the fact is heat pumps exceed 100% - by 2 and 3X (in short a heat pump is 300-400% efficient) In this analysis, efficiency is the amount of BTUs or cooling provided per unit of energy you put in. A furnace provides heat, but many climates that used to need only heat now need heating and cooling. A furnace cannot provide cooling, but a heat pump provides both heating and cooling. And for homeowners with both a furnace and an A/C unit, that outdoor unit for the A/C is likely as worn and inefficient as the heater. 

Assuming national average rates for electricity (~$0.14/kWh), and 300% efficiency (ie a cold climate heat pump used in an actual cold climate or a regular heat pump in southern climates), the price difference between electrical heat via a heat pump, or a natural gas furnace, is a wash - not more than a few hundred dollars difference between the two, and in the author’s experience installing dozens of heat pumps, the heat pump is usually cheaper. Milder climates, closer to 400%, will obviously see more efficiency, and lower cost compared to natural gas. 

What about the cooling side? Typical AC units have a SEER rating of 10-15 (higher is better). SEER for efficient cold climate heat pumps is ~25. So savings there, as well. 

But that isn’t even the best part! Now layer in solar on top of your clever heat pump purchase (cost of heat pump is roughly = to A/C+furnace replacement). Solar is almost perfectly matched to hot summer days (some panels facing west helps with the match). And as your heating and cooling are electrified, your solar installation can be sized to produce, on an annual basis, your total needs, thus greatly reducing your costs for heating and cooling, and reducing pollution along the way.